On February 18, 2026, the TWINRD project hosted its second major online workshop, Macroeconomic Modelling and Transition Scenarios Landscape. If the first gathering explored the technological DNA of innovation, this session shifted the spotlight to something equally critical: what impacts can the twin transition be expected to have on Europe’s economic growth and structural change?

At stake was not just better data—but better direction. How can Europe translate the rapid evolution of green and digital technologies into policies that actually work?.

To tackle this question, the workshop brought together key figures from the project. Ioannis Charalampidis (E3-Modelling) opened with an overview of TWINRD’s ambitions. Pierre Le Mouël (SEURECO) examined how green and digital forces are reshaping economic structures. Carlo Sessa (ISINNOVA) then guided participants through a forward-looking framework designed to co-create the transition pathways ahead.

Pioneering a New Modelling Standard

The central challenge addressed during the workshop is that standard macroeconomic models currently used at the EU level often fall short in capturing the full scope of Research and Innovation (R&I) activities. Specifically, they struggle to represent the deep interdependencies between emerging green and digital technologies. TWINRD is addressing these gaps by upgrading and linking two of Europe’s most powerful tools:

– GEM-E3: A multi-sector Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with energy and environment blocks, being updated to enhance its representation of green and energy technologies, knowledge spillovers, and R&D uncertainty.
– NEMESIS: A macro-econometric model of the EU, being upgraded with a new dedicated module for ICT and digital technologies.
– TWINRD model: A brand new open-source macroeconomic model specifically designed to analyse the twin transition, integrating both supply- and demand-side dynamics and covering up to 50 economic sectors across the EU-27 and key global regions.

By integrating new data and technology classifications, TWINRD is refining these tools to better evaluate how R&I policies impact socio-economic and environmental outcomes.

Key Insights: Co-Designing Future Pathways

But the workshop did not stop at technical upgrades. It pushed further—into the realm of scenarios. A central question emerged: is the “Ecodigital” transition already unfolding as a natural technological trajectory, or is it still largely a political ambition waiting to be realised?. The answer, participants suggested, depends on how technology is governed.

Digital innovation, while often seen as a solution, is not inherently green. It can accelerate sustainability—or undermine it. The same tools can lead to radically different outcomes depending on how they are deployed.

The Three Pathway Logics

To make sense of this uncertainty, the workshop explored three distinct pathways shaping Europe’s journey to 2050.

The first is the Sustainable pathway (Footprint Reduction), grounded in efficiency—reducing emissions and limiting environmental damage as quickly as possible.

The second is the Restorative pathway (Net-Zero), which goes further by aiming to repair ecosystems and achieve net-zero outcomes.

The third, and most transformative, is the Regenerative pathway (Net-Positive). Here, the goal is not just to stabilise systems, but to enable them to thrive—supporting the co-evolution of human and natural systems in a way that generates net-positive impacts.

These pathways are not just theoretical constructs. They represent fundamentally different visions of progress—and demand different policy choices.

Synergies and Trade-offs: Four Scenarios for 2035

To bring these ideas to life, the workshop introduced four scenarios for 2035, each illustrating how green and digital transitions might interact in practice.

In the Smart Green Leap, digital technologies act as accelerators, driving deep decarbonisation and resource efficiency. Emissions could drop by around 80%, with relatively low pressure on resources.

In contrast, the Digital Lock-In scenario shows what happens when digital expansion outpaces the energy transition. Rising demand overwhelms decarbonisation efforts, leading to higher overall emissions.

The Circular Intelligence scenario offers a more optimistic vision: AI-powered systems and distributed energy networks enable circular production, closing material loops and pushing emission reductions as high as 95%.

Finally, the Green Paradox highlights a less intuitive risk. Even well-intentioned green investments can backfire if not properly coordinated—leading to system instability and eroding public trust.

Together, these scenarios make one thing clear: synergy is not guaranteed. It must be designed.

The Role of Twin Technologies

A key takeaway from the discussion was that technologies themselves are not inherently aligned with any one pathway. For example, Smart Energy & Grids can optimise energy demand within existing systems in one scenario, while becoming the backbone of decentralised, community-driven energy ecosystems in another. The difference lies not in the technology—but in the governance around it. The same applies to digital twins, which can either track incremental progress toward net-zero targets or enable more adaptive, place-based transformations.

Addressing “Tipping Cascades”

Among the most compelling insights was the concept of “tipping cascades.” These are moments when small, targeted interventions—whether technological or policy-driven—trigger large-scale, self-reinforcing change. Traditional models often miss these dynamics, focusing instead on smooth, incremental growth paths.

TWINRD aims to change that. Its models are being designed to capture these non-linear shifts, helping policymakers identify where and how to intervene for maximum impact.

The Roadmap Forward

The February workshop marks a crucial step in a broader journey. Its outcomes will feed directly into the final phase of TWINRD’s foresight process: a third workshop on Policy Recommendations, scheduled for later in 2026. There, the focus will shift from exploring possible futures to shaping concrete policy guidance for Europe’s green and digital transitions.

By involving stakeholders in the co-design of scenarios, TWINRD ensures that its models reflect not just theoretical possibilities, but real-world tensions, trade-offs, and opportunities. As Europe prepares for its next wave of investments between 2028 and 2034, these Ecodigital scenarios will play a critical role. They offer more than projections—they provide a foundation for decisions. And in a transition as complex as this one, better decisions may be the most valuable innovation of all.